Unemployment Rate
This rate expresses the percentage of a people in a workforce who are willing and able but dont have jobs. People who are not working but not part of the workforce (such as students, handicapped, and retired individuals) are not included in these figures.
Importance
Unemployment is considered to be a lagging indicator, one that only shifts after underlying economic conditions have already changed. This rate can cause moderate volatility in the market because it gives forex brokers and traders clues about future interest rates and monetary policy. Unemployment can also indicate an increase or decrease in future consumer spending.
Market Impact
When unemployment rates are lower than expected, currencies usually appreciate because interest rates usually increase. When unemployment rates are higher than expected, currencies could weaken, leading to lower interest rates. These factors are important for forex trading.
Trade Balance
The ratio of imports to exports for a given countrys economy is called the trade balance. A trade surplus occurs when exports are higher than imports, and this means that the trade balance is positive. A trade deficit occurs when imports are higher than exports, and this means that the trade balance is negative. Trade balance is primarily derived from the price of goods in a country, the tax and tariff levies on imported or exported goods, and the exchange rate between two currencies.
Importance
Information on a countrys net imports and exports can help predict future inflation and foreign investment trends. Such predictions can give clues about the future behavior of any currency market. A Forex broker or trader would be wise to investigate any current or future shifts.
Market Impact
Trade balance heavily depends on the current exchange rate between two countries and is an important coincident indicator of a foreign exchange asset markets state.
Consumer Confidence Index
The CCI is a monthly survey that asks 5,000 US consumers about their spending patterns and their feelings toward the current economy. Participants are also asked about their confidence in buying expensive consumer goods. Happy consumers generally do more shopping and travelling, which keeps the economy strong. The report expresses both current sentiment and expectations for the coming months. Neutral is around 100; a CCI below 75 is generally weak, and above 125 is considered strong.
Importance
If the CCI drops sharply, then a weakening economy is possible. However, experts say that the correlation between spending and CCI figures is not very strong and that only changes of at least five points can be considered significant.
Market Impact
Foreign investors on forex trading platforms are worried by pessimistic consumers. A low CCI can indicate the increased probability of falling interest rates and a weakening economy. These would greatly lessen the dollars value, and foreign investors might sell in favor of higher yields and stronger economies in other countries.
However, a high CCI can indicate rising interest rates and a higher return from the stock market. This would also increase the demand for the dollar in FX trading.
Durable Goods Orders
The dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods is measured by this government index. Demand from both foreign and domestic sources is taken into account.
Durable goods are new or used items that have a normal life expectancy of three or more years.
Importance
This index is an important indicator of future manufacturing activity as well as consumer and business demand for equipment. An increasing index suggests that increased demand will likely result in increased production and employment. The opposite is true of a falling index.
Increases in aircraft and defense orders can skew the report, so these categories should sometimes be discounted when determining whether or not a market-wide increase has occurred.
Market Impact
Because Durable Goods Orders is considered to be a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, the market has been known to move in direct response to this report.
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